Executive Summary 

• Allianz Research expects global business insolvencies to rise by +6% in 2025, and again by +5% in 2026, before a modest decline by –1% in 2027. 
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• Trade rerouting and (energy) deflation have prevented tariffs from unleashing the wave of corporate insolvencies. 
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• Countries whose economies lean heavily on exports could still feel the pinch. 
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• Asia is on track to remain the largest contributor to the global rise in insolvencies in 2025 and 2026, again accounting for half of the global increase.